Intergenerational Analysis of Educated Unemployment Duration in East Java: A Multilevel Survival Approach Toward School-to-Work Transition Policies
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Vol. 20 No. 2 (2025)
Keywords:
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educated unemployment, Generation Z, East Java, multilevel survival analysis, school-to work transition
Abstract
Educated unemployment, particularly among Generation Z (Gen Z), poses a major challenge to inclusive and sustainable labor market development. East Java, as a province with a large population and a high proportion of young people, exhibits a pronounced trend of unemployment among Gen Z in both rate and duration. This study employs a multilevel survival analysis using the 2023 National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) to compare the unemployment duration between Gen Z and Gen XY (a combination of Generations X and Y) and to identify the factors influencing it. The results reveal that Gen Z experiences longer unemployment durations and responds less effectively to formal interventions such as job training and the Prakerja program. Conversely, factors such as age, marital status, and education level significantly affect both groups. Income inequality, measured by the gini ratio, tends to prolong unemployment, while dynamic labor market conditions—reflected in higher labor force participation rates and regional GDP—help accelerate the transition to employment. Based on these findings, this study proposes the JAWARA KERJA program (East Java Initiative for Labor Market Access and Resilience), which emphasizes adaptive training for Gen Z, skill enhancement for Gen XY, and integration of labor market information systems. This program is expected to serve as a targeted and responsive policy for improving the school-to-work transition and addressing intergenerational disparities in the regional labor market.
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References
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Adianto, J., & Fedryansyah, M. (2018). Peningkatan Kualitas Tenaga Kerja Dalam Menghadapi Asean Economy Community. Focus?: Jurnal Pekerjaan Sosial, 1(2), 77–86. https://doi.org/10.24198/focus.v1i2.18261
Alatas, A. R., A, M. S., & Hidayat, I. N. D. (2022). Analisis Manfaat Program Kartu Prakerja di Kecamatan Biau Kabupaten Buol. Jurnal Multidisiplin Madani, 2(10), 3673–3677. https://doi.org/10.55927/mudima.v2i10.1386
Amalia, F., & Nugrahadi, T. (2020). Penerapan Multilevel Survival Analysis Terhadap Durasi Mencari Kerja Angkatan Kerja Lulusan SMK di Indonesia Tahun 2019. Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, 2020(1), 882–891. https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2020i1.545
Anwar, K. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh Pendidikan dan Gini Rasio terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran di Kalimantan Selatan. Jurnal Humaniora Dan Ilmu Pendidikan (Jahidik), 3(1), 9–18. https://doi.org/10.35912/jahidik.v3i1.1993
Austin, P. C. (2017). A tutorial on multilevel survival analysis: Methods, models and applications. International Statistical Review, 85(2), 185–203. https://doi.org/10.1111/insr.12214
Bappenas. (2020). Metadata Indikator Tujuan Pembangunan Berkelanjutan (TPB)/Sustainable Development Goalls (SDGs) Indonesia Pilar Pembangunan Sosial, Edisi II.
Becker, G. S. (1975). Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education, Second Edition. Archives of Neurology, 43(1), 58–61. https://doi.org/10.1001/archneur.1986.00520010054022
BPS. (2020). Jumlah Penduduk Menurut Wilayah, Klasifikasi Generasi, dan Jenis Kelamin, Indonesia, 2020.
BPS. (2023a). Booklet Sakernas Agustus 2023 (Vol. 6, Issue 2).
BPS. (2023b). Keadaan Pekerja di Indonesia Agustus 2023.
BPS Provinsi Jawa Timur. (2024). Keadaan Angkatan Kerja Provinsi Jawa Timur Agustus 2023 (Vol. 23, Issue 1).
Chandra, N. E., & Rohmaniah, S. A. (2019). Analisis Survival Model Regresi Parametrik Lama Studi Mahasiswa. Jurnal Matematika, 9(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.24843/jmat.2019.v09.i01.p106
Crisanty, T. M., & Pasaribu, E. (2022). Determinan Pengangguran Lulusan SMK Provinsi Sulawesi Utara Sebelum dan Saat Pandemi Covid-19. Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, 2022(1), 769–778. https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1.1155
Economic Sciences Prize Committee. (2010). Markets with Search Frictions. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 1–34.
Faggian, A. (2014). Handbook of regional science. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 59–73. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23430-9
Friska, M., & Damayanti, A. (2021). The Effect of Overeducation on Unemployment Duration in Indonesian. Berdikari?: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Statistik Indonesia, 1(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.11594/jesi.01.01.01
Hox, J. J., Maas, C. J. M., & Brinkhuis, M. J. S. (2010). The effect of estimation method and sample size in multilevel structural equation modeling. Statistica Neerlandica, 64(2), 157–170. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9574.2009.00445.x
Irvan. (2019). Efektivitas Program Balai Latihan Kerja dalam Mengurangi Tingkat Pengangguran di Kecamatan Tana Lili Kabupaten Luwu Utara.
Jannah, R., Rachmawati, H., & Dhitara, P. Y. A. (2022). Systematic Literature Review Analisis Pengangguran dan Soft Skill pada Besaran PDRB Jawa Timur. Media Ekonomi, 21(2), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.30595/medek.v21i2.10257
Kementerian Ketenagakerjaan. (2024). Evaluasi Pembangunan Ketenagakerjaan Berbasis Hasil Pengukuran Indeks Pembangunan Ketenagakerjaan.
Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. (2020). Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional 2020-2024.
Nuzulaili, D. D. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, PDRB Dan UMP Terhadap Pengangguran di Pulau Jawa 2017-2020. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi (JIE), 6(2), 228–238. https://doi.org/10.22219/jie.v6i2.20473
Ode, M. H. La. (2022). Durasi Mencari Kerja Bagi Pekerja Usia Muda di Indonesia. Forum Analisis Statistik, 2(2), 118–128. http://dx.doi.org/10.xxxxx/formasi.2021.1.1.1-12
Rachmadiansyah, Rumlaklak, N. D., & Mauko, A. Y. (2022). Prediksi Masa Tunggu Kerja Alumni Menggunakan Naïve Bayes Classifier Pada Program Studi Ilmu Komputer Universitas Nusa Cendana. Jurnal Komputer Dan Informatika, 10(2), 143–150. https://doi.org/10.35508/jicon.v10i2.7426
Romadhon, A., & Zikra, A. (2022). Pengaruh Pelatihan Bersertifikat, Karakteristik Lulusan, dan Disabilitas Terhadap Pengangguran Usia Muda di Indonesia: Analisis Data Sakernas Agustus 2021. Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, 2022(1), 1359–1372. https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1.1556
Salsabila, N. A., Andriani, S., & Mirisda Nohe, D. A. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Menggunakan Regresi Probit dan Logit. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Matematika, Statistika, Dan Aplikasinya, 2, 344–353.
Salsabila, S. A., & Budiasih, B. (2023). Determinan Status Upah Tenaga Kerja Terdidik di Indonesia. Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, 2023(1), 459–470. https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1693
Septama, A., & Darmawan, E. S. (2025). Perbandingan Gaya Kerja , Stres Kerja dan Loyalitas Kerja pada Generasi X , Y dan Z?: Studi Kasus di Rumah Sakit Pusat Pertamina. Jurnal Bisnis Mahasiswa, 5(1), 39–53. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10/60036/jbm.v5i1.454
Setyanti, A. M., & Finuliyah, F. (2022). Pengangguran Terdidik Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19: Analisis pada Data Sakernas 2020. Jurnal Ketenagakerjaan, 17(1), 28–39. https://doi.org/10.47198/naker.v17i1.118
Widiastuty, I. L. (2018). Peran Perempuan dan Penduduk Terdidik dalam Upaya Mencapai Target Sustainable Development Goals di Indonesia. JPPM (Jurnal Pendidikan Dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat), 5(2), 154–166. https://doi.org/10.21831/jppm.v5i2.21925
Authors
Barsua, N. P. E. U., I Ketut Adi Chandra Wiguna, Ikhlasul A’mal and Muhammad Dokhi (2025) “Intergenerational Analysis of Educated Unemployment Duration in East Java: A Multilevel Survival Approach Toward School-to-Work Transition Policies”, Jurnal Ketenagakerjaan, 20(2), pp. 250–267. doi: 10.47198/jnaker.v20i2.580.
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