The Impact of Kartu Prakerja Program Participation on the Decision to Become a Gig Worker and Gig Worker Earnings in Indonesia
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Keywords:
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gig worker, kartu prakerja program, propensity score matching, tobit gig worker, program kartu prakerja, propensity score matching, tobit
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic caused many individuals to lose their jobs and face economic uncertainty, prompting a shift toward more flexible work arrangements such as gig worker work—freelance jobs based on digital platforms without formal employment contracts. To address the employment impact, the government launched the Kartu Prakerja Program as an effort to enhance skills and support labor adaptation. This study aims to analyze the general characteristics of Kartu Prakerja recipients and examine its impact on individuals’ decisions to become gig workers, as well as its effect on their earnings. The data used in this study come from the August 2024 National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) by BPS-Statistics Indonesia, employing the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method to reduce potential estimation bias and the Tobit model to account for censored earnings data. The findings reveal that the Kartu Prakerja Program increases the likelihood of individuals becoming gig workers but reduces their earnings. These results suggest that, although the program effectively facilitates transitions into the digital sector, further evaluation is necessary to ensure its benefits are distributed more evenly, particularly in supporting skill development and earnings growth among gig workers.
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References
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Austin, P. C. (2009). Balance diagnostics for comparing the distribution of baseline covariates between treatment groups in propensity-score matched samples. Statistics in Medicine, 28(25), 3083–3107.
Ayyagari, M., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Maksimovic, V. (2013). Measuring firm-level financial access: Evidence from developing countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6764. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6764
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BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2024). Survei Angkatan Kerja Nasional (Sakernas) Februari 2024: Keadaan ketenagakerjaan Indonesia. Jakarta: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. https://www.bps.go.id/publication/2024/07/05/0455778ea851bbeda66890a8/booklet-survei-angkatan-kerja-nasional-februari-2024.html
Baek, J., Park, S., & Ryu, D. (2015). A review of propensity score matching in social science. Korean Journal of Policy Studies, 30(1), 101–122.
Bappenas. (2014). Evaluasi Program Nasional Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (PNPM) Mandiri. Jakarta: Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. Retrieved from https://www.bappenas.go.id/files/1499/
Bappenas. (2020). Rencana pembangunan jangka menengah nasional 2020–2024. Jakarta: Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. Retrieved from https://www.bappenas.go.id/files/2215/
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Caliendo, M., & Kopeinig, S. (2005). Some practical guidance for the implementation of propensity score matching (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1588). Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). https://ftp.iza.org/dp1588.pdf
Febriani, A., & Lestari, R. (2021). The role of prior work experience in adult education uptake: Evidence from Indonesia. Indonesian Journal of Lifelong Learning, 5(1), 45–60. https://doi.org/10.5678/ijll.v5i1.45
GovInsider. (2023). How Indonesia is boosting workforce productivity through large-scale training. Retrieved from https://govinsider.asia
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Hafeez, M., Shabbir, M. S., & Ullah, I. (2022). Gig worker work and labor markets: Evidence from online platforms in Pakistan. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4283861
Heckman, J. J., Ichimura, H., & Todd, P. E. (1997). Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator: Evidence from evaluating a job training programme. Review of Economic Studies, 64(4), 605–654. https://doi.org/10.2307/2971733
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IDinsight. (2025). Evaluation of the Kartu Prakerja Program: Key findings and recommendations for inclusive labor policy. Jakarta: IDinsight & Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs (Kemenko Perekonomian RI).
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Iskandar, H. (2022). Analisis peran tingkat pendidikan dalam partisipasi Program Kartu Prakerja. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik, 13(2), 157–168. https://doi.org/10.22212/jekp.v13i2.2022
Khandker, S. R. (2009). Handbook on poverty and inequality. World Bank.
Kurniawan, T., & Sari, M. (2020). Determinants of enrollment in digital skilling programs: The case of Kartu Prakerja. Indonesian Journal of Public Policy, 8(3), 211–228. https://doi.org/10.2345/ijpp.v8i3.212
Manajemen Pelaksana Program Kartu Prakerja. (2023). Laporan tahunan Program Kartu Prakerja 2023. Jakarta: PMO Prakerja. https://laporan 2023.prakerja.go.id/Prakerja
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Natalia, C., & Putranto, F. G. F. (2023). Kerentanan kesejahteraan gig worker di Indonesia pascapandemi. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 12(2), 173–186. https://doi.org/10.52813/jei.v12i2.479
Nugraha, D., & Santoso, B. (2020). Administrative barriers and migrant access to social programs in Indonesia. Journal of Migration Studies, 9(1), 67–82. https://doi.org/10.3456/jms.v9i1.134
Pathways Commission. (2022). Diagnostic report: Digital skills landscape in Indonesia. Retrieved from https://pathwayscommission.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-03/FINAL_Diagnostic%20Report_Accessible.pdf
Permana, M. Y., Izzati, N. R., & Askar, M. W. (2023). Measuring the gig economy in Indonesia: Typology, characteristics, and distribution. Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi, 21(3), 339–358.
Pratiwi, E., & Wibowo, H. (2022). Educational attainment and eligibility for government training programs: A high school phenomenon. Education Policy Analysis, 14(4), 201–219. https://doi.org/10.9876/epa.v14i4.312
Pratomo, D. S., Saputra, P. M. A., Asrofi, D. A. N., Natalia, C., & Zenritami, S. L. (2023). Gig workers in the digital era in Indonesia: Development, vulnerability, and welfare. International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 26(3), 303–321. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEBR.2023.10058503
Predianto, T., & Khoirurrosyidin, K. (2020). Mengkaji upaya pemerintah melalui Program Kartu Prakerja dalam perspektif pemberdayaan di masa pandemi Covid 19. Gorontalo Journal of Government and Political Studies, 3(2), 115–127. Retrieved from https://jurnal.unigo.ac.id/index.php/gjgops/article/view/1175
Putri, F. A. (2023). The role of the Kartu Prakerja Program in promoting entrepreneurship during the COVID 19 era. Bappenas Working Papers, 6(2), 182–195.
Ravallion, M. (2005). Evaluating anti poverty programs (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3625). World Bank.
Rubin, D. B. (2001). Using propensity scores to help design observational studies: Application to the tobacco litigation. Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology, 2(3), 169–188.
Sitorus, R., & Kornitasari, R. (2024). Gig work in Indonesia: Income security, social protection, and the role of upskilling. Jakarta: Lembaga Demografi FEB UI.
Suryadarma, D., & Suryahadi, A. (2020). Participation determinants in skills training programs: Evidence from Indonesia. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 174, 1634–1641. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.01.814
Taylor, L., Floridi, L., & Van der Sloot, B. (2023). Platform work and the limits of flexibility: A regulatory perspective. Oxford: Oxford Internet Institute.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (2nd ed.). MIT Press.
Woodcock, J., Graham, M., & Lehdonvirta, V. (2019). The gig economy and digital labor. In M. Graham & W. H. Dutton (Eds.), Society and the Internet (pp. 225–245). Oxford University Press.
World Bank. (2021). Overview: Indonesia digital engagement. Retrieved from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/611531627051206860/pdf/Overview.pdf
ACI Perspectives. (2023, May 5). Chart of the week: Urban–rural digital divide in Indonesia. Asia Competitiveness Institute. Retrieved from https://aciperspectives.com/2023/05/05/chart-of-the-week-may-5-2023-urban-rural-digital-divide-in-indonesia/
Anggara, R. T., & Auwalin, I. (2024). Optimizing the Kartu Prakerja Program for young workers. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 13(2), 168–178. https://doi.org/10.15294/edaj.v13i2.78970
Anwar, M. A., Malik, A., & Fuad, M. (2021). Platform working time regulation for digital gig workers: Learning from the Global South. ResearchGate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/363625935
Austin, P. C. (2009). Balance diagnostics for comparing the distribution of baseline covariates between treatment groups in propensity-score matched samples. Statistics in Medicine, 28(25), 3083–3107.
Ayyagari, M., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Maksimovic, V. (2013). Measuring firm-level financial access: Evidence from developing countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6764. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6764
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2020). Survei Angkatan Kerja Nasional (Sakernas) Agustus 2020: Keadaan ketenagakerjaan Indonesia. Jakarta: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. https://www.bps.go.id/publication/2020/12/23/d8b9a75ce826ddafbddb9657/booklet-survei-angkatan-kerja-nasional-agustus-2020.html
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2024). Survei Angkatan Kerja Nasional (Sakernas) Februari 2024: Keadaan ketenagakerjaan Indonesia. Jakarta: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. https://www.bps.go.id/publication/2024/07/05/0455778ea851bbeda66890a8/booklet-survei-angkatan-kerja-nasional-februari-2024.html
Baek, J., Park, S., & Ryu, D. (2015). A review of propensity score matching in social science. Korean Journal of Policy Studies, 30(1), 101–122.
Bappenas. (2014). Evaluasi Program Nasional Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (PNPM) Mandiri. Jakarta: Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. Retrieved from https://www.bappenas.go.id/files/1499/
Bappenas. (2020). Rencana pembangunan jangka menengah nasional 2020–2024. Jakarta: Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. Retrieved from https://www.bappenas.go.id/files/2215/
Bappenas. (2021). Rencana pembangunan jangka menengah nasional 2020–2024: Mempercepat pemulihan ekonomi dan reformasi sosial. Kementerian Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional/Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional. https://perencanaan.bappenas.go.id/rpjmn
Caliendo, M., & Kopeinig, S. (2005). Some practical guidance for the implementation of propensity score matching (IZA Discussion Paper No. 1588). Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). https://ftp.iza.org/dp1588.pdf
Febriani, A., & Lestari, R. (2021). The role of prior work experience in adult education uptake: Evidence from Indonesia. Indonesian Journal of Lifelong Learning, 5(1), 45–60. https://doi.org/10.5678/ijll.v5i1.45
GovInsider. (2023). How Indonesia is boosting workforce productivity through large-scale training. Retrieved from https://govinsider.asia
Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric analysis (7th ed.). Prentice Hall.
Hafeez, M., Shabbir, M. S., & Ullah, I. (2022). Gig worker work and labor markets: Evidence from online platforms in Pakistan. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4283861
Heckman, J. J., Ichimura, H., & Todd, P. E. (1997). Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator: Evidence from evaluating a job training programme. Review of Economic Studies, 64(4), 605–654. https://doi.org/10.2307/2971733
Horton, J. J., Kerr, W. R., & Stanton, C. T. (2016). Digital labor markets and global talent flows. Research Policy, 45(8), 1031–1046. NBER Working Paper No. 22110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2016.01.008
IDinsight. (2025). Evaluation of the Kartu Prakerja Program: Key findings and recommendations for inclusive labor policy. Jakarta: IDinsight & Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs (Kemenko Perekonomian RI).
International Labour Organization. (2021). World employment and social outlook 2021: The role of digital labour platforms in transforming the world of work. Geneva: ILO. https://www.ilo.org/global/research/global reports/weso/2021/WCMS_771749/lang en/index.htm
Iskandar, H. (2022). Analisis peran tingkat pendidikan dalam partisipasi Program Kartu Prakerja. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik, 13(2), 157–168. https://doi.org/10.22212/jekp.v13i2.2022
Khandker, S. R. (2009). Handbook on poverty and inequality. World Bank.
Kurniawan, T., & Sari, M. (2020). Determinants of enrollment in digital skilling programs: The case of Kartu Prakerja. Indonesian Journal of Public Policy, 8(3), 211–228. https://doi.org/10.2345/ijpp.v8i3.212
Manajemen Pelaksana Program Kartu Prakerja. (2023). Laporan tahunan Program Kartu Prakerja 2023. Jakarta: PMO Prakerja. https://laporan 2023.prakerja.go.id/Prakerja
Miller, M. A. (2018). Gender, culture, and access to vocational training in Southeast Asia. Asian Journal of Development Studies, 10(2), 98–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/ajds.2018.02.004
Natalia, C., & Putranto, F. G. F. (2023). Kerentanan kesejahteraan gig worker di Indonesia pascapandemi. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 12(2), 173–186. https://doi.org/10.52813/jei.v12i2.479
Nugraha, D., & Santoso, B. (2020). Administrative barriers and migrant access to social programs in Indonesia. Journal of Migration Studies, 9(1), 67–82. https://doi.org/10.3456/jms.v9i1.134
Pathways Commission. (2022). Diagnostic report: Digital skills landscape in Indonesia. Retrieved from https://pathwayscommission.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-03/FINAL_Diagnostic%20Report_Accessible.pdf
Permana, M. Y., Izzati, N. R., & Askar, M. W. (2023). Measuring the gig economy in Indonesia: Typology, characteristics, and distribution. Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi, 21(3), 339–358.
Pratiwi, E., & Wibowo, H. (2022). Educational attainment and eligibility for government training programs: A high school phenomenon. Education Policy Analysis, 14(4), 201–219. https://doi.org/10.9876/epa.v14i4.312
Pratomo, D. S., Saputra, P. M. A., Asrofi, D. A. N., Natalia, C., & Zenritami, S. L. (2023). Gig workers in the digital era in Indonesia: Development, vulnerability, and welfare. International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 26(3), 303–321. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEBR.2023.10058503
Predianto, T., & Khoirurrosyidin, K. (2020). Mengkaji upaya pemerintah melalui Program Kartu Prakerja dalam perspektif pemberdayaan di masa pandemi Covid 19. Gorontalo Journal of Government and Political Studies, 3(2), 115–127. Retrieved from https://jurnal.unigo.ac.id/index.php/gjgops/article/view/1175
Putri, F. A. (2023). The role of the Kartu Prakerja Program in promoting entrepreneurship during the COVID 19 era. Bappenas Working Papers, 6(2), 182–195.
Ravallion, M. (2005). Evaluating anti poverty programs (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3625). World Bank.
Rubin, D. B. (2001). Using propensity scores to help design observational studies: Application to the tobacco litigation. Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology, 2(3), 169–188.
Sitorus, R., & Kornitasari, R. (2024). Gig work in Indonesia: Income security, social protection, and the role of upskilling. Jakarta: Lembaga Demografi FEB UI.
Suryadarma, D., & Suryahadi, A. (2020). Participation determinants in skills training programs: Evidence from Indonesia. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 174, 1634–1641. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.01.814
Taylor, L., Floridi, L., & Van der Sloot, B. (2023). Platform work and the limits of flexibility: A regulatory perspective. Oxford: Oxford Internet Institute.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (2nd ed.). MIT Press.
Woodcock, J., Graham, M., & Lehdonvirta, V. (2019). The gig economy and digital labor. In M. Graham & W. H. Dutton (Eds.), Society and the Internet (pp. 225–245). Oxford University Press.
World Bank. (2021). Overview: Indonesia digital engagement. Retrieved from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/611531627051206860/pdf/Overview.pdf
Authors
Wahyuni, R. N. T. and Asy-Syifa, A. . (2025) “The Impact of Kartu Prakerja Program Participation on the Decision to Become a Gig Worker and Gig Worker Earnings in Indonesia”, Jurnal Ketenagakerjaan, 20(3). doi: 10.47198/jnaker.v20i3.539.
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